Blockchain & Bitcoin Value Chain · US / HK / A-Shares · Investment Map

Understand Blockchain & Bitcoin in One Chart:
Decision Map of Three Markets from Mining to RWA

There is only one "master switch" for this chain: coin price. This map follows "Upstream Hashrate → Midstream Exchange/Stablecoin/Treasury → Downstream RWA & Application" to outline 20 companies across US, HK, and A-shares. Currently in a deep drawdown, the landscape shows a rare split: the US is deleveraging (ETF outflows, treasury company flywheels reversing, mining firms turning to AI), while Hong Kong is building systems (the first batch of stablecoin licenses landing, RWA accelerating). Please read the risk matrix first, then the company profiles.

Data Benchmark: Early July 2026 · Coin price and holding numbers are approximate and highly volatile. Please check real-time data before placing orders.
Bitcoin Price
≈$60,000
Over 50% drawdown from the October 2025 high of $125,500
US Spot ETF Holdings
≈675,000 BTC
6.2% of circulating supply; $4.5B net outflow in June, the worst monthly performance
MicroStrategy Bitcoin Holdings
847,363 BTC
Nearly 4% of supply, average price $75,651, floating loss of ~$13B
HK First Batch Stablecoin Licenses
March 2026
36 applicants, single-digit approvals, the world's first full-chain framework
Hong Kong RWA Market 2026E
>$50B
About 38% share of global tokenized issuance
01

Value Chain Map: Coins Flow Right, Fees and Capital Expenditure Flow Left

The key to understanding this chain lies in two directions: Product Flow delivers from upstream to downstream (hashrate produces coins → trading/custody/issuance → assets and application scenarios); Capital Flow transmits in reverse—coin price and trading volume determine exchange fees, stablecoin reserve interest, and treasury premiums, which in turn determine capital expenditure for mining machines and hashrate. Therefore, all companies on this chain are "derivatives" of the coin price, with differences only in beta size and cash flow quality. Another independent main line is compliance: Hong Kong's "license + RWA" system and Mainland China's "strictly prohibited domestically, tightly regulated overseas" (2026 Eight Departments Document No. 42) jointly determine the business boundaries of HK and A-share targets. Click on any segment to filter the company list below.

Upstream · Mining & HashrateMidstream · Exchanges, Stablecoins & TreasuriesDownstream · RWA & Applications
UPSTREAM
→
MIDSTREAM
→
DOWNSTREAM
Product Flow → Hashrate / Coin / Trading & Custody / Tokenized Assets ← Capital Flow: Coin Price × Volume / Reserve Interest / Hashrate CapEx (Leading Indicator of Prosperity)
02

Company Profiles: 20 Companies Across Three Markets

Moat ratings are qualitative assessments (5-point scale: integrating licenses and access barriers, network effects, cash flow quality, reliance on coin price, and competitive landscape). Special note: the beta of stocks in this sector is generally larger than that of the coin itself (when the coin drops 50%, related stocks typically drop 70–85%); A-share targets are restricted by the "domestic ban" and represent conceptual mappings rather than direct businesses, which is truthfully noted in the profiles. Click a card to view the full profile.
03

ETF Tools: How to Capture Industry Beta Without Selecting Stocks

The unique aspect of this industry: if you want exposure to the "coin" itself, spot ETFs are purer and cheaper than any single stock; you only need individual stocks or equity-based ETFs if you want exposure to "industry stocks". Both US and HK markets have spot Bitcoin ETFs; there are no crypto asset ETFs available in A-shares or Mainland China channels (prohibited domestically), meaning the only compliant path for mainland investors is through Southbound Stock Connect individual stocks (excluding HK crypto ETFs, which are also not within the scope of the Connect program).

Market / Ticker Target Asset Fee Rate Structural Features Suitable Scenarios
US IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust (BlackRock) 0.25% Top tier in size and liquidity, accounting for ~75% of outflows in this round, and serves as the main buying channel during rebounds The default option for pure coin price exposure
US FBTC Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund 0.25% Second-tier in scale, self-custodied by Fidelity (not relying on Coinbase), diversifying custody risks Same logic as IBIT, diversifying single-custodian risk
US BITOFutures ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF 0.95% Holds CME futures, suffers rolling costs, underperforms spot in the long run Only suitable for accounts unable to trade spot ETFs or short-term trading
US BLOKEquity Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF (Actively Managed) 0.73% Holds industry stocks like COIN, MSTR, and miners; beta is larger than coin price Betting on the recovery of industry stocks relative to coin price
HK 3042 ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF (Spot) 0.99% First batch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in Asia, supporting in-kind creation/redemption, HKD/USD/RMB counters Allocating spot coin price exposure within HK stock accounts
HK 3008 Bosera HashKey Bitcoin ETF (Spot) 0.60% Lower fee rate than ChinaAMC, smaller size and liquidity Fee-sensitive HK spot Bitcoin allocation
04

Decision Signal Calendar: What to Watch & When

The pricing logic of this chain has changed: ETF flows have replaced the halving cycle as the primary pricing anchor (2026 is the first year in Bitcoin's history to decline in the year following a halving). Ranked by importance, the first two signals determine the coin price, which in turn determines everything else.

Daily · After US Market Close
Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow (First look at IBIT)
The premier indicator in the institutional era. IBIT accounts for ~75% of outflows in this round, and its daily flow is almost a synchronous indicator of the coin price. Empirical threshold: consecutive daily net inflows exceeding $100M/day confirm the return of institutions; the net outflow of $4.51B in June represents the worst month in history. ETF holdings stand at ~675k BTC (~6.2% of circulating supply), indicating the stock has not collapsed—slowing outflows do not equate to returning buy pressure, and both must be validated separately.
Weekly FOMC Window + CPI/Non-Farm Payrolls
Fed Interest Rate Path & Treasury Yields
The macro root of this decline: strong employment delays interest rate cuts → Treasury yields rise → Bitcoin (a "non-yielding asset") loses appeal. The linkage between ETF flows and 10-year Treasury yields has strengthened significantly in 2026. Restarting interest rate cut expectations is the prerequisite for valuation recovery across the chain, which is more important than any industry catalyst.
Weekly 8-K Disclosures + Quarterly Earnings
MicroStrategy & Treasury Companies (DAT) Trends
Observe three things: mNAV (falling below 1 means issuing shares to buy coins changes from value creation to value destruction), priority share dividend coverage in months, and selling announcements—in June 2026, MicroStrategy broke its "never sell" promise, introducing the "Digital Credit Capital Framework" (STRC dividend raised to 12%, buyback authorization, and limited realization of BTC), marking the entry of the corporate hoarding model into a deleveraging phase. Also watch for rule treatments of "digital asset treasury companies" by indices like MSCI, as forced selling by passive funds remains a hanging sword.
HK/US Legislative & Licensing Windows
Regulatory Milestones: HK License Batches & US Market Structure Bill
HK Line: Following the implementation of the first batch of stablecoin licenses in March 2026 (36 applications, single-digit approvals), track the second batch of licenses, launch of RWA products on licensed platforms, and custody and tax rules—these determine the business ceilings of OSL, Lianlian, and brokerage-related targets. US Line: Progress on the Market Structure Bill (CLARITY) determines regulatory certainty for exchanges and tokens. Mainland Line: Under the "strictly prohibited domestically, tightly regulated overseas" framework of Document No. 42 by eight departments, any implementation details will directly impact A-share concept stocks.
Monthly · On-chain & Stablecoin Data
Stablecoin Total Market Cap Growth & On-chain Activity
Stablecoin supply is the thermometer of on-chain liquidity: USDT/USDC market cap expansion means new capital entry, while contraction indicates liquidity withdrawal. For Circle, "Size × Treasury Yield" is the revenue formula; both variables must be monitored. The tokenized RWA scale (Hong Kong target exceeding $50B in 2026) is the hard verification of downstream application narratives.
Quarterly · Miner Operations Reports
Network Hashrate, Mining Costs & Miner AI Contracts
The longer the coin price remains below the cash cost of mining, the more severe the hashrate capitulation and miner selling (Bitdeer has cleared its proprietary holdings). A key shift in this round: miners' land + electricity + server rooms are being repriced by AI—IREN has locked in ~84% of its $3.7B annualized AI revenue target (contracts with Microsoft, Nvidia, Dell), and every new contract in "AI-fying hashrate assets" reshuffles the valuation order of the miner sector.
05

Risk Matrix: Systemic vs Segment-Specific

This is the highest-risk map: the entire chain shares "coin price" as a single factor, naturally limiting diversification. Segment-specific risks can be partially hedged (e.g., balancing "holding-type" targets (treasuries/miners) with "tollbooth-type" targets (exchanges/HKEX/financial IT), and balancing the US coin price line with the HK compliance line), but systemic risk can only be managed via position sizing.

Systemic Risks (Chain-wide Resonance)

  1. Coin Price Single Factor & Excess Beta—Almost all targets on the chain are leveraged derivatives of the coin price: in this round, BTC retracted ~52%, while MSTR retracted ~84% from its peak, and most miners and concept stocks saw declines far exceeding the coin price. The four-year halving cycle pattern has failed for the first time (declining in the year after halving), meaning historical cycle models can no longer serve as bottom-fishing guidelines.
  2. Macro Liquidity—In the ETF era, the correlation between Bitcoin, US Treasury yields, and USD liquidity has strengthened significantly, debunking the narrative of "digital gold" as an independent asset in this round; every quarter interest rates remain high drains capital from the market.
  3. Two-way Regulatory Risks—US policy oscillates with election cycles; Mainland China's Document No. 42 confirms 'strict domestic prohibition,' institutionally capping the business imagination of A-share concept stocks; although HK is friendly, licensing is extremely cautious (approval rate under 12%), meaning failure to obtain a license represents a realized negative catalyst.
  4. Security & Trust Incidents—Exchange/cross-chain bridge hacks, stablecoin depegging, and custodian failures are 'low-frequency, high-damage' tail risks. They have occurred in every past cycle and will indiscriminately hammer valuations and regulatory attitudes across the chain.

Segment-Specific Risks (Structurally Hedgible)

  1. Treasury (DAT) Flywheel Reversal—Once mNAV falls below 1, issuing shares to buy coins mathematically destroys per-share value when mNAV < 1; priority dividends are rigid expenses; further declines in coin price could trigger a negative loop of "selling coins to pay dividends" and passive selling pressure from index exclusions. This is currently the most fragile segment of the sector.
  2. Double Whammy & Transition Divergence of Miners—Post-halving reward cuts + halved coin prices squeeze mining cash flows; whether power and datacenter assets can be converted into AI contracts (the IREN model) has become a survival divide, and pure miners unable to transition face hashrate capitulation.
  3. Stablecoin Interest Margin Business Model—Issuer revenue ≈ reserve size × Treasury yields; interest rate cut cycles directly slash revenues. Combined with distribution costs (revenue sharing between Circle and Coinbase) and the entry of bank-backed/giant stablecoins, license dividends do not equal profit dividends.
  4. No Fundamental Support for A-Share Concept Stocks—For targets like Forms Syntron, Northking, and Lakala, related revenue share is extremely small. The market is essentially a thematic play, with volatility driven by sentiment rather than orders; under the "strict domestic prohibition" framework, concepts are hard to translate into domestic revenue, leaving no earnings support during pullbacks.