Stock Valuation

Explore historical valuation, analyst consensus, scenarios and price attribution: how much of the current price reflects fundamentals and how much reflects sentiment?

← Valuation Observatory
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Valuation overview

Compare the current price with prices implied by historical median multiples and one-year targets under three scenarios.

Historical valuation range

Select a multiple to inspect its history, median and ±1σ band over the selected window. The commentary explains its current position and the price gap to the median.

PEG and analyst consensus

Divide P/E by earnings growth to put valuation in context, then examine forward valuation using analyst estimates for the next fiscal year.

Valuation scenarios

Adjust growth, exit multiples and holding periods to compare target prices and annualized returns. Scenario probabilities are normalized when their sum differs from 100%.

Base EPS uses the latest TTM. Default exit P/E multiples use the 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles of the selected window. Changing the window resets scenarios that have not been edited.

Reverse valuation: what is priced in?

Estimate the growth required to justify the current price, then compare it with historical results and analyst estimates. This interprets the current price rather than forecasting it.

Price attribution: fundamentals and sentiment

Decompose returns into revenue per share, margin (EPS/revenue) and P/E changes. Explore annual contributions or a custom interval.

Revenue per share contributionMargin contributionP/E multiple contribution (sentiment)Log price return

Bars show log-return percentage points (log change × 100); the three components sum to the total return. Tables and tooltips also show ordinary returns. A ⚠ marks EPS changes beyond ±40% or across zero, when P/E changes may reflect the earnings base. Read these with margins. Year-end uses the last disclosed quarter; each interval begins at the previous year-end. The latest year ends at the current price and latest TTM figures.

This page provides calculations, not investment recommendations. Historical medians are not fair values, consensus estimates can be wrong, and scenario probabilities are subjective. Per-share values use TTM weighted diluted shares and split adjustments. EPS uses GAAP throughout — sourced from SEC XBRL filings rather than adjusted non-GAAP reports. Analyst estimates also use GAAP for a consistent comparison. Relevant modules flag one-off items such as unrealized investment gains. Analyst price targets and ratings come from Yahoo consensus and are not calculated here. Long-term growth estimates for 3–5 years are unavailable and hidden; P/B has no forward estimate. Reverse DCF uses per-share values and excludes future buybacks and issuance. Discount rates and perpetual growth rates are user assumptions.